The Detroit Lions were massive 8.5-point favorites on Thanksgiving. And not only did they lose that game — the second biggest upset on Thanksgiving since 1980 — but they never came particularly close in an ugly 29-22 setback against the Green Bay Packers.
Upon further review, Dan Campbell doesn’t think the game was so ugly.
But he did identify one key issue that continues to hold back his first-place team heading into December.
“Listen, if anything, I went back and after watching it, I’m actually more encouraged,” Campbell said. “Because to me, it’s not what it appears to be. Just on the basic level of this, it’s, man, it’s turnover ratio. It’s turnover ratio.”
Among all the numbers by which we evaluate this game, perhaps none correlates tighter to wins and losses than turnover ratio. And right now, the Lions are checking in at minus-5 on the season, ahead of only the Falcons, Browns, Raiders, Panthers, Vikings, Patriots and Commanders — only one of which has a winning record.
They’ve been a bottom-five team at taking away the football all season, generating just eight picks and four fumbles. Now they’re coughing up the football too, seven times in the last two games overall. Quarterback Jared Goff was on the hook for six of them, matching his total from the previous 18 games combined. He threw three picks in the comeback win against last-place Chicago, then fumbled three times in the shocking loss against Green Bay, all of which were recovered by the Packers, and one of which scored a touchdown.
It has been a shocking downturn for Goff, who opened this season riding the third-longest streak without an interception in NFL history.
They’re working on it.
“We’ve talked, he knows,” Campbell said. “And like I told him this morning, it’s the, ‘Man, once I’m starting to break the line of scrimmage, I’ve got to tuck it away.’ It’s as simple as that, and it’s an emphasis we work on at practice. We’re going to work on it. Like all these little things that come up, man, we’re not just going to yell harder. We’re going to give substance. You teach them, you show them, and here’s where you can be a little bit better. Everything from pass pro to the rush, to the way we cover, to the way we jam, to the way we protect the football, or don’t protect. I mean there’s some stuff on tape right now offensively that we’re not even talking about because it wasn’t a turnover that’s going to cost us (in the future), the ball’s loose. So, it’s those things we’ve got to just keep emphasizing. But, man, I’m not getting worried.”
They’re working on protecting the football. They’re also working on taking it away. That’s something they’ve been preaching since the offseason, and is a big reason why they prioritized signing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, the reigning interceptions leader in the league. With Kerby Joseph coming off a team-high four picks in his rookie season, Detroit was hopeful more picks would come.
Instead, Gardner-Johnson has been out with a torn pec since Week 2, and teams have avoided Joseph for much of the season. He snagged picks in back-to-back games in Weeks 8-9, but no safety had one before that or since.
They’ve also recovered just four fumbles, two by Aidan Hutchinson, plus one apiece by Will Harris and Alex Anzalone, the latter of whom is playing really well but is now expected to miss multiple games.
Again, they’re working on it.
“We talk about hustling to the football, but man, we’ve got to make more of a point of first guy in, you’ve got him, second guy’s got to go in, everything about it is stripping the ball out,” Campbell said. “It’s one thing to say, ‘Hey, everybody to the football, rally, and now we hit.’ It’s got to be the first man wrap him up, the second man’s getting the ball out. Everybody’s got to be around it when it does pop. Certainly, coverage plays into that. We do have to play tighter. When you look back at our game the other day, we actually play with tight coverage. There’s a number of those we just couldn’t finish on the football, but we’re in phase. Look, (Packers QB Jordan) Love played a hell of a game, man. The ball was out. There’s about four of those that were seven-step hitches, the rest of those are like five-step, in rhythm, no hitch, ball’s out three step. I don’t care what kind of rush you’ve got, the ball’s going to be out. So, man, we just keep working, do what we do, it’s the same group we’ve had. Yeah, we’re good.”
