The Washington Capitals reportedly will add to their blueline, coming to an agreement with free-agent defenseman Ethan Bear on a two-year contract. The move has not been made official yet but it has already kicked off talk about the rest of the team’s defenders as Bear isn’t coming in to just sit in the press box.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman featured Bear in his latest 32 Thoughts article. After confirming that the Capitals’ offering an extra year to Bear was the deciding factor in negotiations, Friedman mused that his addition could cause a bit of a “domino effect” on the team’s blueline.
Friedman wrote:
A few weeks ago, I saw Vancouver as the favourite for Ethan Bear. What other interested parties could see, however, was the Canucks’ salary-cap limitations. Washington, which has some LTIR flexibility, could offer a second year at approximately $2M and land the player. Vancouver — and others — wanted to get through this year, then consider an extension in the offseason. Now, we wait to see the domino effect on the Capitals’ blue line. There’s time, as Bear is not yet ready to play.
There are multiple factors at play that need to be settled once Bear is added to the equation. First things first, the Capitals are currently carrying a full, 23-man roster and have eight healthy defenders. Two of those defenders, Alex Alexeyev and Lucas Johansen, are first-round picks and have not featured in a game since November 24 and November 18 respectively. Unless the Capitals decide to carry nine defensemen, one of the two youngsters will come off the roster in favor of Bear.
Moving Alexeyev or Johansen won’t be as simple as just demoting them to the AHL’s Hershey Bears though. Both players are no longer waivers exempt and will need to be exposed to all 31 other NHL teams before making their way back to Hershey. If the Capitals do not want to risk losing one of them for nothing, they could work out a trade in the meantime as Bear, coming off summer shoulder surgery, is not going to be ready to immediately jump into the lineup.
Something else that must be considered is the fact that Bear is right-handed and the Capitals already have three, right-handed veterans playing in every game this season. John Carlson, Nick Jensen, and Trevor van Riemsdyk are currently cemented on that side, earn the most against the cap of all of the team’s defensemen, and are signed through the 2025-26 campaign.
While van Riemsdyk is comfortable playing on his off-hand side and has done so under head coach Spencer Carbery this season, Carbery made it clear during Training Camp that he considers himself more of a “traditionalist” when it comes to forwards and defenders playing on their strong sides.
“I am a traditionalist when it comes to that,” Carbery said. “I just prefer lefty-righty. Moreso on the backend [than with forwards]. I find your O-zone touches and your regroup touches, when you’re playing lefty-righty, [are] a lot more seamless.”
If Carbery does not want to budge, the team could instead look to move one of their right-handed rearguards. Jensen would be the most likely candidate there as the 33-year-old has struggled for large stretches of this season. At five-on-five with him on the ice, the Capitals are seeing just 44.4 percent of the shot attempts, 41 percent of the expected goals, 43 percent of the scoring chances, and 43.2 percent of the high-danger chances.
Bear was a major positive when he was on the ice for the Canucks last season. When you look at his relative stats aka the percentage point difference between the selected stat and the team’s percentage in that stat with that player on the bench, you’ll see that effect. Bear was +3.4 percent in shot attempts, +5.1 percent in expected goals, +2.1 percent in scoring chances, and +6.7 percent in high-danger chances.
The Capitals will have plenty of time to decide their next move as Bear won’t be ready to be plugged into the lineup for some time and the team’s salary cap space isn’t going anywhere as Nicklas Backstrom is not expected to come off of long-term injured reserve.
